Where Is Technology Taking Us?
Next Steps In Computing

| Dr. Hellmuth Broda Chief Technologist Europe, ME & Africa Member, Sun Vision Council Sun Microsystems Computers Hellmuth.Broda@Sun.COM

Informing Science Conference, June 20—22, Krakow

Agenda

| Technology and the consumer
| Technology Trends
| The Six Webs
| Ten Predictions
| Jini technology supports service model
| How Jini works
| The service driven network

Charles Darwin
(1809 - 1882)

| “It is not the strongest of species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one most adaptable to change.”

Executive’s Technology
Competency?

The ClueTrain Manifesto
95 Theses

| 1. Markets are conversations
| 2. Markets consist of human beings, not demographic sectors [ . . . ]
| 6. The Internet is enabling conversations among human beings that were simply not possible in the era of mass media
| 7. Hyperlinks subvert hierarchy.

95 Theses (cont.)

| 30. Brand loyalty is the corporate version of going steady, but the breakup is inevitable—and coming fast. Because they are networked, smart markets are able to renegotiate relationships with blinding speed.
| 31. Networked markets can change suppliers overnight. Networked knowledge workers can change employers over lunch. Your own "downsizing initiatives" taught us to ask the question: "Loyalty? What's that?"

95 Theses (cont.)

| 76. We've got some ideas for you too: some new tools we need, some better service. Stuff we'd be willing to pay for. Got a minute?
| 77.You're too busy "doing business" to answer our email? Oh gosh, sorry, gee, we'll come back later. Maybe
| 83. We want you to take 50 million of us as seriously as you take one reporter from The Wall Street Journal.

www.cluetrain.org

Coming Technology Breakthroughs

| Nanotechnology
| “Wet” Electronics
| Sensors
| Connectivity unlimited
| Electronic Commerce for everyone
| Emergence of combinations of technologies designed to create efficiencies (Factor 4)

Critters On A Chip:
Wet Electronics

| Robots controlled by eel brain
| Bacteria on chips detect pollutants (bioluminescence)
| Insects in sensors detect land mines, chemical weapons and narcotics
| Rodent brains help identify new medicines

Where Will Technology Lead Us?

| Software will run on all devices
| Software is distributed everywhere on the network
| Software is safe
| Software allows a new kind of computing device: US$100: 4 chips ð 1 chip
| Data Communication will bypass voice traffic in 2001 (The Yankee Group 12/97)
| Eventually, “voice over IP” will become a free service

A Technology Future

| C4S Convergence: Computers, Communication, Consumer Electronics, Content, Services
| By 2008 an average adult will daily consume
| 2700 calories of food
| 3 liters of fluid (piwo?)
| 30 GB of digital information
| Unlimited bandwidth: 6.4 Terabit/s (1012) over a single sub-fiber ( = all the TV programs of the world plus all voice communication)
| Soon bandwidth will exceed compute power!
| Processors: 2 x in 18 months
| Bandwidth: 2 x in 9 months

Gilder's vs. Moore's Law

Three Bets

Sun's Big Bets (Investments)

The Six Webs

| Traditional web
| Entertainment web
| Pervasive computing web
| Commerce web
| Pocket comm- unication web
| Voice activated web

The Traditional Web

| Computer
| Keyboard
| Screen
| Modem
| Phone line
| LAN

The Entertainment Web

| Sit on your couch
| Be entertained
| Ambient intelligence
| Follow-me system
| Story telling
| Video games
| Mobile music

The Pervasive Computing Web

| Machines talking to machines
| Jini, federations of services
| Wired or wireless
| “Is it machine washable? --- hot cycle?”

The eCommerce Web

| Business to business
| Business to consumer
| e-Market places
| Procurements
| Auctions
| Integrated Supply Chain

Pocket Communicator Web

| Follows you around
| In your pocket
| Personal communicator
| my: position, profile, surrounding, context

Proximity Services Surfacing

The Voice Activated Web
(a.k.a. “Dick Tracey Web”)

| Voice activation
| Agents, bots
| Studs
| Always on
| Continuous real time

Folie 25

Prediction 1

Prediction 2

Folie 28

Java Devices

Prediction 3

StarPortal

Prediction 4

Prediction 5
Extranets and Intranets Converge

Prediction 6

Prediction 7

From 10 to 50‘000‘000 Hits in 90 Seconds . . .

Prediction 8

Prediction 9

Prediction 10
The big transition

| From our product centric industry to a service centric industry
| Products (and content?) will metamorphose into services (Jini)
| Light bulb -> illumination lease

Five Years from Today?

| Will we still be able to manage our systems?
| Are enough System Admins on the Indian subcontinent
| First large installations in free fall?

This Is How We Used to
Build Systems

Deutsch's Seven Fallacies

| The network is reliable and homogeneous
| The network is secure
| Latency is zero
| Bandwidth is infinite
| There is (exactly) one administrator
| Membership on the network is stable
| The network topology doesn't change

Future: Mobile, Distributed Computing?

Do We Need A Novel Computing Paradigm?

| Can we build systems that
| Do not depend on a „central intelligence“
| Are truly decentralized
| Resilient
| Dynamic
| Don‘t need complicated setups
| Can just form impromptu groups
| Support a service model?
| Or asked differently . . .

The Quest For Connectivity

Big Questions

| How rich does the set of network-supported services become?
| How can we interoperate without a PhD in networking?

The Answer

| Everything becomes a Network Service!

What is Jini?

| Software layer (48kB) to describe services to the net
| Runs on all Java Virtual Machines (JVM) on any device (“from mainframe to toaster”)
| Only the Front-End of the service is transmitted---Distributed Computing
| Lease mechanism makes Jini resilient
| End of all Protocols as we know them

The Problems Jini Solves

| Building reliable systems
| From unreliable parts
| Without global knowledge
| Scaling over space and time
| Dealing with the network
| Moore's law is an area law
| Gilder's law is a volume law

Goals of the Technology

| Reliable networks
| Even with unreliable parts
| Scaling
| Over space, size, and time
| Interfaces are more stable than
| Implementations
| Wire protocols
| Hardware or software

Jini™, how does it work?

Jini™, how does it work?

Where Will We See Jini In the Future?

| Desktop, portable computers
| Printers, scanners
| WebCams
| Disk drives
| DVD, mpeg, CD players
| VCRs, TVs
| Refrigerators, freezers
| Alarm systems
| Heart monitors
| Heating / Air conditioning
| Kitchen appliances
| Automotive services
| Automobile service and control bus
| Massive parallel computing
| ERP SW, ASP services
| Machine to machine services and interaction
| . . .

Examples for Jini Projects

| FETISH
| PABADIS
| HeyWow
| Throughput Engine
| US Navy
| Web Trader
| Car Manuf. Ford, . . .
| Internet Switch
| JEMS

Service Driven Network

How To make Use Of Technology Advances

| Let the Young train the Adults
| Technology without services is useless and thus worthless: invest in services
| Encourage industry to “go services”
| Governments can join the „Digital Nations“ project of MIT/Harvard http://dn.media.mit.edu/

Conclusion:
Technology Enables E-Commerce

| Enable access to the electronic shopping mall for everyone
| Immediate globalization of business (for vendors and buyers), new service level needed (7 x 24)
| Shrinkage of space and time
| Turns our world into an “Equal Opportunity Global Village”
| Task for our generation: Preservation of cultural heritage on the Web

May The Force (of Solaris) Be With You . . .

In The Name Of All Delegates: Dziekuje to our hosts!

Folie 60